Okay, How Good Are They? Print E-mail
Written by Constantine Scionti   
Wednesday, 09 January 2008
The Celtics have begun the season at a blistering 29-3 pace, and the questions and comparisons are starting to flow in.  They've played 32 games and have 50 remaining, so it seems a good time to start asking.

The Celtics are on pace to win 74 games, two more than the record set by the Chicago Bulls in the 1996 season.  ESPN's website has a page devoted to tracking the 2008 Celtics against the 1996 Bulls.
If you want to follow along, here's the link: ESPN

Before the season, most observers were concerned about the time it would take the Celtics to develop good team chemistry and learn to play with three superstars who had each spent many years carrying their teams without help.  A friend of mine predicted 53 wins, and in a move of bald-faced one-upmanship, I proceeded to predict 54 wins.  Shows what we know.

My sister (also a long-time fan) and I were recently discussing the futility of making predictions early in an NBA season.  I agreed at the time, and still do, but the discussion got me trying not to make a prediction, which had the same effect as trying not to think about that pink polar bear people always try to get you not to think about...

Please note: these predictions assume no injuries;  all prognostications are off if someone important goes down.  Anyway, I have trouble predicting 74 wins, since it's an insane number of victories.  Going back to my preseason prediction, they would get 54 wins if they now go 25-25 from here on.  That would be catastrophic.  So, what should they get?

A handy technique for making people give you a straight answer when they try to weasel out of giving you a number (estimates for the cost of a repair, predictions for a basketball team) by telling you that you just never know/can't say, etc.: take the two ends of the range and ask which is likelier, if they had to bet, then work your way in from there.  Which is likelier for the Celtics from here on: 0-50 or 50-0?  I think it's safe to say that we would all be shocked and end up talking about it for decades if the team finished the season 50-0 for a record of 79-3, but you know what?  I think it's likelier than 0-50.  Not much likelier (like lottery-winning longshot odds), but I would bet the mortgage that they won't go 0-50 from here on out.  I then worked my way in, asking myself to compare the likelihood of 5-45 vs. 45-5, and so on to come up with what I think is a tolerable prediction.
Okay, so what would be a reasonable record for Celtics fans to hope for?  Starting at the bottom end:

Anything under 35-15 to finish at 64-18 would be bad.  Going up 5 to 40-10 to finish at 69-13 seems doable, and would certainly be reason to celebrate.  It would also almost surely result in homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs.  It seems giddily optimistic to hope for 45-5 (for a record of 74-8), and even though that is the pace they are on, they have too many tough games against Western Conference opponents coming up to think that they have a  reasonable shot at that.  I'll go with outside shot, but I would need long odds to take that bet. 

Can they tie or break Chicago's record of 72-10?  When I look at the schedule, I don't see a whole lot of games that the Celtics should even find to be a test.  They have eight games remaining against San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas (two each), and Detroit and Utah (one each), other than those, all their remaining games are against opponents they should be heavily favored against.  I strongly doubt that they will lose all eight of the above-mentioned games.  The other things that could trip them up on the way to a record-breaking season are: some brutal roadtrips they have coming up, fatigue and letdowns, and underachieving, though talented, teams getting up for one great game to knock off the leaders.

I think they will pass the test of these three potential speed bumps on their way to a great record (even if it's not record-breaking).  The roadtrips they have are tough, but the first West Coast trip, in December, was to be their first test, and they went 4-0.  The next trip out west has them going to Phoenix, but the other four opponents should be beatable.  Fatigue may set in here and have them end up 3-2, or maybe 2-3, but I think 4-1 is the likeliest result for this trip.  The other trip is the real killer: San Antonio and Houston back-to-back and two days later Dallas.  That stretch could go 0-3 (assuming San Antonio has gotten healthier), but I would be surprised if they don't get at least one victory there.

The reason I am not too worried about letdowns and being caught (too often) by overachieving teams looking to knock the Celtics off is the make up of the team.  Paul Pierce has always been a fierce competitor, but Kevin Garnett makes him look like the Dalai Lama.  I'm pretty sure he's the most visibly intense competitor I have ever had the privilege to watch; to steal a line from Brad Gilbert, the guy probably brushes his teeth ferociously.  Those two never take a game off, and if your top two don't dog it, the rest of the team better follow suit, and they have been.
Another feature of the Celtics is that there are a lot of shooters capable of carrying the team for a bit while other players' shots are not falling.  What are the odds that Garnett, Pierce, Allen, Allen, House and Posey are all missing their shots in the same game?  Not high.  Add Rondo, who is hitting more shots this year, Perkins, Pollard and (dare I say it this early?) Davis, and you have enough firepower to cover up for whoever is not scoring well.

So, how many wins will it be?  I should put in a range of possible finishes, but where's the fun in that?  I'll officially go with 43-7 over the next fifty games.  That means dropping off their current pace just a bit, but there are tough games coming up and it's one thing to maintain focus through a football season of seventeen weeks, it's quite another to stay focused on every game (of fifty) for the next four months.  So, I think they will end up tied with the 1996 Bulls at 72-10, and by then it'll be a great record to have, but as a certain Mr. Brady and co. a few exits down on I-95 will tell you, it's what comes next that's important.
 
< Prev   Next >
[ Back ]